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Covid-19

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Chuckster_in_Jax said:
There is the option of negative interest rates. Take out a loan for 'x' amount of money and you pay back the lending institution less tan the amount you borrowed.
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A couple of countries in Europe are doing that. I forget which ones.
China could be faking the numbers but they would have had to be much better mathematician than those in Iran are. China had only a small fraction of their population effected. In order to be that smooth in their statistics it would have been a magic trick. If you ask me if they under reported, I'd say, most likely. But I don't think they'd have been doing it with intent. Why would they want to have a death rate that was 2 times what WHO was saying it was. I think on this you are being too paranoid. There is little purpose in lying on this. If they bring their workers back to work and start exporting the virus in large numbers, it will only isolate them more. I don't think they'd want to do that.
Dwight
 
Dwight Elvey said:
Why would they want to have a death rate that was 2 times what WHO was saying it was.
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I don't think I'm being paranoid. Where or how is the WHO getting their numbers from inside China? Everything you see and hear about about this virus in China is what their leadership wants you to believe. I don't think China is about to let foreigners in to investigate the present situation. Same goes for Iran but they seem to slightly more open about their situation.
 
Agent Orange said:
I don't think I'm being paranoid. Where or how is the WHO getting their numbers from inside China? Everything you see and hear about about this virus in China is what their leadership wants you to believe. I don't think China is about to let foreigners in to investigate the present situation. Same goes for Iran but they seem to slightly more open about their situation.
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WHO has been on site in China, at least until last week when things were on a good trend. They are now off to Europe that needs better monitoring. Iran's information is garbage. I don't know why you'd make such a statement about Iran. They have no reason one way or the other to give accurate reports and the information they are passing is just junk. If they are doing it intentionally or not is a good question. They had clerics that were telling people to keep visiting one of the hot spots, in Iran. Do remember, it is the clerics that run the country. It would be really difficult for China to go forward in time and make their data match other locations as well as it has.
In China, they know we don't like them and we know they don't like us. The first few weeks were clearly a cover up but I suspect that was done by local bureaucrats trying to make it look like they had things in control. I don't think those people will be put in charge of out house cleaning in the future, if they don't spend jail time first. The cost of the initial delay cost China billions. Any lack of the truth from them on the current conditions will cost them even more billions.
I wonder more about North Korea. Their method of control is more like shoot them and hide the bodies.
Dwight
 
There are at least 2 strains of this thing, just like with common influenza. Attempts to predict trajectories are probably not worthwhile. I heard something to the effect that cases of the less virulent strain have been increasing, while cases of the more deadly variety are decreasing. So who the h*** really knows.
 
I would expect the strain to mutate. As to how nice the new version is, I wait to see the numbers improve. If in fact the new one also provided immunity to the other it might be worth introducing into the wild. I believe this comes out of China but we wait to see the deaths decrease per person.
Dwight
 
The WHO is a UN entity and the lion's share of its funding is, of course, provided by the US. The WHO has to function in a politically correct manner as they attempt to please everyone. Once Xi Jinping became involved, it's been reported that they, the Chinese, are doing a pretty good job of containing the virus. However, intelligence sources point out that the problem first surfaced last November. Concerned Chinese officials have disappeared from public view after bringing mention of the situation to the forefront. The way I see it, all that matters now is how go about treating this thing within our own shores. It's here like the measles, chicken pox, and mumps. We can bandy the numbers all day long, but some avenues of treatment better come to light real soon, or we, as nation, are in for a world of hurt.
 
Dwight Elvey said:
Any calculation on a moving target is going to be flawed. Still we can look at maximum and minimums. China that now has declining cases, we can see a maximum number, based on the number of recognized cases ( I know many younger people don't get tested and go under the bar but that only support the maximum ).
They have 66930 recovered cases and 10720 current active cases. They have 3199 deaths ( not count current today on any of these numbers ). Things are running long enough there that we can start to put some brackets on thing ( and yes I know they may not have the best top notch care in the world ). They still have the best numbers for a min/max.
Ok
3199/(66930+3199)= 0.046 or 4.6% near maximum.
3199/(66930+10720+3199)= 0.039 or 3.9% near minimum.
This is for the people that do get recognized with the virus.
Based on China's numbers it looks like around 4%. Still mostly in the higher age group, meaning 40+. The ratios seem to grow exponentially by 2X for every 10 years of age until 90+ where they are seeing around 25% to 30% someplace. These are based on the recognized numbers of cases.
These are China's numbers. Their information gathering may be flawed so take it all with a grain of salt but don't use wishful thinking as a gauge. I suspect the unreported younger people are not being included as cases. That will bring the numbers down as China still has a growing population ( more young than old ). If you use Italy's numbers where they have many more old than young, things look worse.
Iran's numbers are obviously flawed. Unless they have a miracle drug or something, they don't know what they are doing. They seem to have people getting cured before they even contract the virus. Still their numbers are currently between 15% and 5% but until they are significantly on the decline one can't make any judgement.
South Korea has leveled off and had some time to stabilize. Its min/max is about 1% to 8%. of those that catch the virus.
The US CDC has a number of 2% of those that catch the virus.
Dwight
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No offence but I don't believe your figures are anywhere near accurate as the number un-diagnosed is just supposition.
 
Went to the next town over (pop. ~700) to sign some corporate tax forms. Decided to pop in and see what the grocery store looked like.

Plenty of paper towels. They even had them stacked outside in the parking lot. No TP. No hand sanitizer or disinfectant spray. Very very little pet food.

Still plenty of beer, though. My plan to stay so drunk that the virus dies in my bloodstream is working out swimmingly (just kidding -- mostly).

Last I heard, WV still didn't have any covid-19 cases, but they've had some just over the mountain in Harrisonburg VA (where many people from around here work), so I guess people are expecting it to move in here pretty soon too.
 
Al Kossow said:
It's all fun and games until they lock 6.7 million people down until Apr 7
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

with less than 24 hours notice.
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It is a nasty trick but like closing the schools, a week to late. I do hope it does some good. A lot of businesses are going to shut down. Anyone that thinks it is just a game, take a look at Italy. They were a month too late. They don't stand a chance of bringing it under control. Doctors have to triage to see who they will let die with out a fight and who they might try to save.
Dwight
 
Dwight Elvey said:
It is a nasty trick but like closing the schools, a week to late. I do hope it does some good. A lot of businesses are going to shut down. Anyone that thinks it is just a game, take a look at Italy. They were a month too late. They don't stand a chance of bringing it under control. Doctors have to triage to see who they will let die with out a fight and who they might try to save.
Dwight
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It's been said that Italy's hospitals are atrocious. Germany has more cases then us, 5000. Number of deaths is about 13.

Stop looking at the worst cases. We have 3 deaths in NJ, 69, ~50, and 90+. The 50 something year old is puzzling and somewhat alarming, no "known" medical history. But 3 people. Each one is a tragedy. But we shouldn't hobble the world economy for a malady that is far, far less deadly then the common flu which kills tens of thousands each year. Please get real.

Full stop. Are we thinking and behaving rationally.

Italy's citizens largely ignored the virus and has the 2nd oldest population in the world. I didn't read the whole article, but it's interesting:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/0...epidemic-politicians-are-making-crisis-worse/
 
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Winston Churchill (supposedly) once said, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.”

Only time will tell.
 
tipc said:
It's been said that Italy's hospitals are atrocious. Germany has more cases then us, 5000. Number of deaths is about 13.

Stop looking at the worst cases. We have 3 deaths in NJ, 69, ~50, and 90+. The 50 something year old is puzzling and somewhat alarming, no "known" medical history. But 3 people. Each one is a tragedy. But we shouldn't hobble the world economy for a malady that is far, far less deadly then the common flu which kills tens of thousands each year. Please get real.

Full stop. Are we thinking and behaving rationally.

Italy's citizens largely ignored the virus and has the 2nd oldest population in the world. I didn't read the whole article, but it's interesting:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/0...epidemic-politicians-are-making-crisis-worse/
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Im not sure I would agree with 'far far less deadly than flu'. It appears that because we have no natural immunity, the transmission and infection rates are far higher than current strains of flu and even given the same infection to mortality it will likely kill more people, I would imagine once we have the 'herd immunity' its mortality rate will fall to that of other respiratory infections. but unless a country seals its borders and tests every entrant, every day forever (which would cripple a countries economy) you are NEVER going to stop infections.

But, we must keep in mind that this is not Ebola. The mortality rate is comparatively low compared to things like SARS and almost all fit and healthy people will be fine. The risk that seems to be worrying authorities is overwhelming health providers due to the infection rate.

Latest UK figures for hospitalisation of the infected put this rate at 1.4% of which most will recover (so we can assume a probable mortality rate at < 1%).

My wife is Italian and we have family in Italy (and I was in northern Italy at the end of Feb), the panic is likely to cause more long term damage than the virus itself.

However !!!

Found some toilet roll today :)
 
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