The error "Program does not run on this machine" is a typical HP error message if the Setup program is too old for the hardware.
For everyone else having this problem, try a newer Setup program here, this works on my HP QS16/S i386SX-16 where the one from HP Museum also wouldn't work...
I've uploaded the needed files here, these work with the QS models (QS/16, QS/20 and QS/16S)
https://archive.org/details/hp-vectra-qs-setup-and-utilities-disk-inkl.-setup-b.06.01
This is the correct pinout:
I found it here: http://www.hpmuseum.net/exhibit.php?hwdoc=222
The pinout is on Page 120 of "VectraQS_TechnicalReferenceManual_D1410-90002_220pages_Jun89.pdf"