FYI: Computer Reset liquidation (Dallas, TX)

[Samir]

My observation on prices, now that I have been tracking, is that generally they have been going down. Which I kind of suspected they would, given we probably don't comprise the largest group of hobbyists out there in the first place, and there are a finite number of us with living memory of these machines to feel nostalgic about. Apple II prices are a prime example.. I remember years ago an original A2S1 coming up was rare and fought viciously over. The prices went into $2k plus for even mid production units. Now? Not even breaking $1k in a lot of cases. My Rev 0 sat for weeks with no takers.

These things are fun to play with.. but with few exceptions, investments they are not.

That's interesting to note. Most collectible items pricing falls into the standard distribution bell curve in relation to the amount of nostalgia that there is for the item. I've seen this in the car enthusiast world for sure, where these days the 1940s and 1950s vehicles are currently losing value whereas 1970s and 1980s vehicles are increasing in value. And things like an original Ford Model T just go for their material and practical value since most of the nostalgia attached to those vehicles is gone because the people that generated that nostalgia are gone. I'm sure professionals in the collecting world have all sorts of terms, rules, and formulas that define all of this and could probably even predict pricing on all our stuff at any point in time.

 

[Exceter]

eBay prices aren't universally horrible. But, I'll grant you that getting a good price on eBay takes a lot of diligence and patience.

 

[Samir]

I do think it's great that there *are* younger people who do take an interest in the retrocomputing hobby, but generally I'd say the "you had to be there to get it" factor is far greater than it'll ever be in car collecting.

I would agree with you in that the 'you had to be there' factor is much higher with computing than cars, although the nostalgia does the same work to set the price and demand.

 

[Samir]

Torque converter automatics go back to the late 1940's, but that's beside the point: I don't off the top of my head know how to work the planetary transmission in a Model T (my grandpa had one), but I could probably learn it over a weekend if I really wanted to, or I could do what a lot of people who have T's they drive regularly do and throw a bulletproof 1970's Toyota Corolla transmission in it; I know they sell bolt-on kits to do just that.

It has always fascinated me how many of us in the car hobby are into computers and vice versa. I never expected to learn about a Model T mod on a computer forum, but it shouldn't surprise me.

Maybe someone with A LOT of spare time should make a car to computer equivalence chart. :D Like the PS/2 being the Edsel of IBM PCs. :D

 

[Samir]

He didn't say deviant -- you introduced that word into this discussion.

Agreed, but that's the perception that most people have of those that have a disorganized collection, hence why I threw it in.

 

[Stone]

Agreed, but that's the perception that most people have of those that have a disorganized collection, hence why I threw it in.

No, that's your appraisal.

I don't think you are able to speak for... most people... unless to have some stats to support that.

 

[Samir]

eBay prices aren't universally horrible. But, I'll grant you that getting a good price on eBay takes a lot of diligence and patience.

Agreed. Depending on what you are looking for and what the supply is at that given moment, ebay can have really great prices. In fact, that's I think one of the reasons even though it does have some shady things going on at times that it still is around and successful.

The hardest part about getting the optimal price for what you have is connecting to the right buyer. This is especially true in commercial real estate, but applies to selling almost anything. Ebay's innovation is that it brings a lot of eyes to what you're selling, so the likelihood of finding the right buyer is higher. The flip side is that if what you have is kinda commodity is that it drives price down due to a higher supply unless the demand also increases.

 

[Samir]

No, that's your appraisal.

I don't think you are able to speak for... most people... unless to have some stats to support that.

And that is yours. Everything here is an opinion, including yours, remember that.

 

[Exceter]

Agreed. Depending on what you are looking for and what the supply is at that given moment, ebay can have really great prices. In fact, that's I think one of the reasons even though it does have some shady things going on at times that it still is around and successful.

The hardest part about getting the optimal price for what you have is connecting to the right buyer. This is especially true in commercial real estate, but applies to selling almost anything. Ebay's innovation is that it brings a lot of eyes to what you're selling, so the likelihood of finding the right buyer is higher. The flip side is that if what you have is kinda commodity is that it drives price down due to a higher supply unless the demand also increases.

It bites both ways. If you have a commodity item it will drive the price down but if your item is less common it will drive the price up. On the whole, I find eBay to be invaluable because it connects me with people who, prices aside, have items that I would never be able to find in my local market.

With that said, you can also get lucky. I've gotten fully populated AST SixPakPlus cards off eBay for $10, IBM 5151's for $50, and I recently won an IBM 5162 on eBay for $220 shipped. I've never even seen a 5162 on my local market and they generally go for a lot more than that on eBay.

 

[Stone]

And that is yours. Everything here is an opinion, including yours, remember that.

Where did I state my opinion?

 

[maxtherabbit]

I consider hoarders to be deviant

 

[Samir]

Where did I state my opinion?

You just did.

 

[Caleb Hansberry]

I tend to agree with you but there is a sizable portion of the population that uses it to refer to quantities greater than 2 but less than 10. The same sets I would refer to as a "few"

That doesn't mean that they are right.

And it certainly doesn't mean that I should or would perpetuate their misuse of the terminology.

 

[falter]

Another thing to consider in the longer term is that depressing talk Bil Herd gave at VCF West. The reality is all of this stuff is on borrowed time. Most of it was only designed to last a few years. Many of the parts are not being produced and probably could not be. For a time, we can keep things going with available spares and donor units. But unlike with cars, 50 years hence, little to none of this stuff is likely to be working... even if it was never used.

This has impacts on two dimensions: value and time. What is the value of a machine that is only good for static display? And if we have stacks of old machines sitting around that are already 25-45 years old anyway, way beyond their intended lifespan, are we deluding ourselves by thinking we will get round to fixing up and using everything we have, let alone acquire more with same intent?

 

[Shadow Lord]

Another thing to consider in the longer term is that depressing talk Bil Herd gave at VCF West. The reality is all of this stuff is on borrowed time. Most of it was only designed to last a few years. Many of the parts are not being produced and could not be. Unlike with cars, 50 years hence, little to none of this stuff may still be working.

That, like cars, depends on your skill level. I doubt in our life time things like capacitors, resistors, and diodes are going to become "impossible" to find (Even if you are teenager now). Just because there are parts for cars doesn't mean anybody can fix them. Same thing for computers. Yes some things will eventually die off completely (HDD, physical media) but many of that stuff is already replaced or replaceable. Other things like CPUs, Controller chipsets, etc. are extremely unlikely to die off. Yes it happens. I have one in my G2K 386SX - the OPTI chipset is dead but even that one is currently replaceable (parts are still available if you feel comfortable replacing large SMD chip).

And it is surprising how many things are running with little to no maintenance. I look at my own collection and my IBM systems (knock on wood, spin three times, burns some incense) all boot up with no maintenance at all. Including original HDDs! Some of those are 40+ years old. So yes borrowed time, but enough borrowed, to out last my life time!

 

[Unknown_K]

I think anybody who works on old computers like say for example an Amiga that has custom chips that you can not replace outside of another working Amiga knows those machines do have a finite lifespan. Static shocks will take out chips, so will power supplies that get old enough to put out voltage out of spec, power surges, etc. I have a few graphics cards that are not that old but are dead from design flaws in the main chips, cracked BGA balls, and probably electron migration from running too hot. You don't need a whole system to fail to have an unusable machine.

In some respects the real old gear where every part of the circuit is a discrete component with one function can probably be replaced forever unlike newer stuff that is pretty much just a custom chip. That's why old cars made before computer chips were used are still running while newer ones will one day quit working from dead eproms and unobtainable computer modules.

If you ever worked in the semiconductor industry you can images how much money, expertise, and effort goes into making millions of chips cheaply and how super costly a drop in replacement chip would be to reproduce down the road. Doesn't even have to be chips, try putting a production line together to make 5.25" floppy drives or HDs from scratch once the last spinning disk maker goes to SSD and closes the last plant.

The future is to program a custom chip that does the function of a whole vintage computer stuffed into the empty shell of the system you want to play with (hardware emulation).

 

[Eudimorphodon]

If you ever worked in the semiconductor industry you can images how much money, expertise, and effort goes into making millions of chips cheaply and how super costly a drop in replacement chip would be to reproduce down the road.

There is a small but growing field of interest in using programmable logic (CPLDs, small FPGAs) to replace individual ASICs, but it is true that the level of difficulty starts going up exponentially once you start moving beyond relatively trivial DIP-packed chips. Even machines as lowly as the C64 pose difficult challenges to reproduce perfectly because, for instance, chips like the SID incorporate both digital and analog components on the same die. And once you start getting to large flat packages or BGA there are steep practical barriers to trying to adapt some kind of daughterboard to fit in place of the original chip.

I have to admit I find projects like the C64 Reloaded motherboard sort of perplexing; a brand new motherboard with ZIF sockets to hold increasingly unobtanium chips looks sexy, but the actual value add sort of escapes me. Probably just me, my fault I don't get it.

 

[Al Kossow]

There is a small but growing field of interest in using programmable logic (CPLDs, small FPGAs) to replace individual ASICs

All of which contain flash storage which will rot over time, along with the problem of almost no currently produced parts having 5v compatible I/O.

 

[Eudimorphodon]

All of which contain flash storage which will rot over time, along with the problem of almost no currently produced parts having 5v compatible I/O.

Degrading memories can be reflashed or, more importantly, once you actually have a working design you could always port it to a new part as necessary indefinitely into the future. But, yes, the 5v I/O problem is certainly a significant issue. For a replacement part intended for a .6" pitch 24-40 pin DIP it's at least within the realm of practicality to turn out adapter boards that include level sifting for every pin that fit in the original footprint, but when you start getting to late 80's-90's level of integration, yeah, good luck with that.

 

[falter]

As an example of what I said earlier - take my 1988 Thunderbird Turbocoupe. When it came out, it was a marvel of modern tech (at least, for a North American car), one of the first with ABS braking and a whole host of computerized functions.

Today, if the ABS breaks, it's gone. There is no replacement, there's no way to replace or repair the computer that runs that. The ICs it uses are mostly unobtanium. The market is too small to make it worthwhile for an effort to reproduce or create an alternative. I wonder if that isn't the case too with vintage machines. Sure, the really popular ones might generate enough aggregate demand to make reproduction or such feasible, but when you get into the less popular machines.. like the Intertec Superbrains of the world, or even the Lisa... in 30 years are there going to be enough demand to make fabricating solutions worthwhile for individual machines? And at the end of the day, if you've changed the guts over to new programmable logic, say, is it even the same machine anymore?